The Calgary Flames appear ready to make a significant decision involving one of their former first-round selections.
According to TSN Hockey Insider Darren Dreger, the Flames are trying to trade Connor Zary and are believed to be seeking a second-round draft pick in return. That asking price immediately makes Zary one of the more interesting buy-low options on the NHL trade market.
Zary is only 24, can play centre or wing and carries a manageable $3.775-million cap hit through the 2027-28 season. Those details will attract teams searching for a younger forward without taking on a massive long-term contract.
However, Calgary’s willingness to move him also raises an important question: why would the Flames trade a controllable young player for a draft pick that may never become an NHL regular?
Zary recorded 12 goals and 25 points in 74 games last season, but the raw totals do not tell the entire story. His declining ice time suggests Calgary may no longer see him developing into the top-six forward it once envisioned.
Connor Zary Career NHL Stats
| Type | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 191 | 39 | 47 | 86 | -4 |
| Playoffs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Why the Calgary Flames Are Testing Connor Zary’s Trade Value
Zary entered the NHL with legitimate offensive upside after the Calgary Flames selected him 24th overall in the 2020 NHL Draft. He produced 34 points in 63 games during his rookie season and showed enough creativity, puck skill and offensive awareness to look like a potential long-term piece.
His production has not progressed as Calgary likely hoped.
Zary followed his rookie performance with 27 points in 54 games before falling to 25 points over 74 appearances last season. More concerning than the point total was the decline in his average ice time. Zary went from 16:04 per game to 15:16 and then 14:22 last season.
That is a reduction of one minute and 42 seconds from his first NHL season, or approximately 10.4 percent.
For a 24-year-old former first-round pick, ice time would normally be expected to rise as the coaching staff develops greater trust in the player. Zary’s usage has moved in the opposite direction.
My read is that this is less about Calgary believing Zary cannot play and more about the organization questioning where he fits. If the Flames do not see him becoming a permanent top-six forward or full-time centre, moving him before his value declines further could be reasonable asset management.
The danger is selling too early.
Zary has already played 191 NHL games, can move around the lineup and remains young enough to improve. A rebuilding or retooling team should normally be looking to acquire players with that profile, not trade them for uncertain draft capital.
Connor Zary Trade Value: What the Numbers Actually Say
Zary’s 25 points in 74 games equal 0.34 points per game. Over a full 82-game schedule, that translates to approximately 13 goals and 28 points.
His career production is stronger. Zary’s 86 points in 191 games equal 0.45 points per game, which projects to roughly 37 points over 82 games.
| Connor Zary value indicator | Calculation |
|---|---|
| 2025-26 scoring rate | 0.34 points per game |
| 2025-26 82-game pace | 13 goals and 28 points |
| Career scoring rate | 0.45 points per game |
| Career 82-game pace | Approximately 37 points |
| Remaining cap commitment | $7.55 million over two seasons |
| Average annual cap hit | $3.775 million |
| Age | 24 |
The contract is important. An acquiring team would be committing only $7.55 million in cap space across the next two seasons before Zary becomes a restricted free agent. That is relatively limited exposure for a player who has already demonstrated middle-six NHL ability.
For an original editorial trade-value model, I scored Zary across four categories:
| Trade-value category | Score |
| Age and remaining upside | 18/25 |
| Contract and team control | 21/25 |
| NHL production | 14/25 |
| Role certainty and recent trajectory | 10/25 |
| NHLTR Trade Value Score | 63/100 |
This is an editorial model rather than a league or team evaluation. A score of 63 suggests that a second-round pick is defensible as Calgary’s opening demand, but it may be at the upper end of Zary’s current value.
A late second-round selection could be realistic. An early third-round pick with a conditional selection tied to games played or production may be closer to the eventual return unless multiple teams begin bidding.
Would Trading Connor Zary Be a Mistake for Calgary?
The answer depends on what Calgary does with the asset.
Trading Zary solely because his production stalled would carry significant risk. Players do not always develop in a straight line, and his declining ice time may have contributed to the lower point total. A larger offensive role elsewhere could allow him to return to the 35-to-45-point range.
However, the Flames also cannot evaluate him only by draft position or early promise. If management has determined that younger forwards have passed Zary on the depth chart, converting him into a second-round pick would create another opportunity to add a player who better fits the organization’s timeline.
I would not move Zary simply to collect another lottery ticket. Calgary should either receive a second-round selection with meaningful value or use Zary as part of a larger package for a player who can immediately improve the roster.
Otherwise, keeping him for another season carries limited financial risk. His contract is affordable, he remains under team control and his value could recover with stronger production.
The report from Dreger confirms that Calgary is testing the market, but it does not guarantee a trade will be completed. Until the Flames receive their preferred return, holding onto Zary may be the smarter move.
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