The Buffalo Sabres have suddenly acquired one of the most valuable trade chips of the NHL offseason and it could put Toronto Maple Leafs winger Matthew Knies within their reach.
Buffalo obtained the fourth-overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft from the Chicago Blackhawks by moving Bowen Byram and Jordan Greenway. The Sabres can now select another premium prospect, but general manager Jarmo Kekäläinen must also consider whether the pick would be more valuable as the centrepiece of a blockbuster offer.
That is where Knies enters the conversation.
There is no confirmed report that Buffalo and Toronto are actively negotiating a deal involving the No. 4 pick. However, the roster fit, contract structure and Maple Leafs’ need to build a younger blue line make this a scenario worth examining. If the Leafs select Gavin McKenna first overall, acquiring the fourth pick could allow Toronto to add a potential cornerstone defenseman such as Carson Carels or Chase Reid if he unexpectedly remains available.
For Buffalo, Knies could replace much of what the Sabres risk losing if Alex Tuch reaches unrestricted free agency.
Why Matthew Knies Fits the Buffalo Sabres’ Biggest Need
Knies is not simply a young winger with attractive offensive totals. He brings a combination of size, puck protection, skating and net-front strength that is difficult to acquire.
The 23-year-old produced 23 goals and a career-high 66 points in 79 games during the 2025-26 season. He can play alongside skilled centres, retrieve pucks below the goal line and create offence without requiring every possession to run through him.
That profile would fit exceptionally well beside Tage Thompson.
Buffalo has plenty of young skill, but Knies would give the Sabres another powerful top-six forward who can extend offensive-zone possessions and make life difficult around the crease. His age also aligns with Buffalo’s competitive window considerably better than signing an older free agent to a long-term contract.
Knies is signed through the 2030-31 season at a $7.75-million annual cap hit. Based on his 66-point season, that equals approximately 8.5 points for every $1 million of cap space committed to him.
That is not a perfect measurement of player value, but it illustrates why rival teams are interested. Buffalo would be acquiring six more years of cost certainty during what should be the prime of Knies’ career.
The Sabres’ trade with Chicago reportedly created approximately $9.35 million in cap flexibility after accounting for Crevier’s contract. Adding Knies at $7.75 million would consume most of that space, leaving approximately $1.6 million of the newly created room.
That would complicate a potential Alex Tuch extension, but it would also protect Buffalo from losing Tuch without having a proven replacement in its top six.
Matthew Knies Career NHL Stats
| Type | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 240 | 67 | 93 | 160 | -13 |
| Playoffs | 27 | 8 | 6 | 14 | -2 |
Would the No. 4 Pick Be Enough for the Toronto Maple Leafs?
My view is that the fourth-overall pick would be the centrepiece of a Knies offer not necessarily the entire return.
Toronto reportedly came close to trading Knies to Montreal at the deadline for two first-round selections and two prospects. Sportsnet has also reported that teams continued to call about Knies following the Maple Leafs’ management change.
New Toronto general manager John Chayka has publicly praised Knies’ rare mixture of size, skating and skill. Chayka said a team would be “hard-pressed to do better than Matthew Knies,” which suggests Toronto would require an exceptional return before moving him.
Here is my original trade-value snapshot:
| Asset | Editorial trade-value score | Primary value | Primary risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Knies | 88/100 | Proven 66-point NHL winger with six years of control | Defensive consistency and a significant cap commitment |
| Fourth-overall pick | 81/100 | Potential top-pair defenseman or top-line forward on an entry-level contract | Prospect may require multiple seasons to reach his ceiling |
| Buffalo’s No. 20 pick | 46/100 | Additional first-round prospect or trade currency | Considerably less certainty than a top-five selection |
This model weighs NHL production, age, contractual control, positional scarcity, development risk and expected time to impact. It is an editorial framework not information from an agent, scout or team source.
Under that model, the No. 4 selection alone falls slightly short of Knies’ current value because Knies is already a productive NHL player entering his prime. Toronto would likely seek an additional first-round pick, premium prospect or young roster player.
Buffalo, meanwhile, should be reluctant to surrender both the fourth and 20th selections without another asset coming back. A possible negotiation could therefore involve the No. 4 pick plus a secondary prospect, with conditional value added depending on the player included.
Why Toronto Could Seriously Consider the Trade
The Maple Leafs are expected to use the first-overall selection on McKenna, giving the organization a potential elite offensive winger on an entry-level contract.
That changes the equation.
Toronto could keep Knies and build a formidable young wing combination around McKenna. That is the safer decision and, in my opinion, the route the Maple Leafs should take unless Buffalo substantially overpays.
However, acquiring the fourth pick would give Chayka an opportunity to reshape two major areas of the organization in one draft. Toronto could select McKenna first and then add Carels, Reid, Keaton Verhoeff or another premium defenseman fourth.
Carels produced 20 goals and 73 points in 58 WHL games and projects as a mobile, competitive two-way defenseman. Reid is a right-shot defender with high-end skating and puck-moving ability. Either player could become a major part of Toronto’s blue line, but neither offers the immediate certainty Knies provides.
That is the central question for the Maple Leafs: Is the possibility of landing a future top-pair defenseman worth moving a proven 23-year-old power forward?
My answer is no unless Buffalo adds another meaningful asset.
My Take on a Potential Matthew Knies Trade
The Sabres should absolutely call Toronto.
Buffalo just converted Byram and Greenway into a top-four selection, another early pick, a young NHL defenseman and significant cap flexibility. Flipping part of that return for Knies would turn an already aggressive move into a major upgrade at forward.
For Toronto, the fourth pick would be tempting, especially if its scouts believe Carels or another defenseman can become a franchise cornerstone. But Knies is exactly the type of player the Maple Leafs would immediately begin searching for after trading him.
He wants to remain in Toronto, is signed through his prime and has already proven he can produce in a demanding market. The Leafs should not move him simply to collect more futures.
Buffalo’s new draft capital makes the conversation possible. It does not automatically make the trade worthwhile for Toronto.
The fourth-overall pick would get Chayka’s attention. It should take more than that to get his approval.
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