Matthew Knies is projected to score 29 goals and 48 assists for 77 points in 80 games during the 2026-27 NHL season.
That would represent another significant step forward for the Toronto Maple Leafs winger after Knies produced 23 goals, 43 assists and 66 points in 79 games last season. At just 23 years old entering the new season, I don’t think we’ve seen Knies’ offensive ceiling yet.
The biggest reason I’m buying another jump is opportunity.
Knies should continue receiving major minutes alongside Toronto’s elite offensive players, and his fantasy ceiling becomes particularly interesting if he remains on the Maple Leafs’ first power-play unit with Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares and Darren Raddysh.
There is one complication fantasy managers need to watch closely: Gavin McKenna. Toronto’s first-overall pick has enough offensive talent to eventually force his way onto PP1. That could create competition for Knies or Tavares, especially under new head coach Jim Hiller.
Even with that uncertainty, Knies is one of my favourite Toronto Maple Leafs fantasy hockey breakout candidates for 2026-27.
Matthew Knies Fantasy Hockey Projection for 2026-27
Here is my NHLTradeRumor.com projection for Knies:
| Category | 2025-26 | 2026-27 Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 79 | 80 |
| Goals | 23 | 29 |
| Assists | 43 | 48 |
| Points | 66 | 77 |
| Points Per Game | 0.84 | 0.96 |
Projected 2026-27 totals: 29 goals, 48 assists, 77 points
My realistic projection range is approximately 70-82 points, with an upside case that could take Knies into the mid-80s if everything breaks correctly.
Matthew Knies Career NHL Stats
| Type | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 240 | 67 | 93 | 160 | -13 |
| Playoffs | 27 | 8 | 6 | 14 | -2 |
Why Matthew Knies Could Approach 80 Points
Knies’ development is interesting because his scoring profile has already started changing.
During the 2024-25 season, he scored 29 goals and 58 points. Last season, his goal total fell to 23, but his assists exploded from 29 to 43, and he finished with a career-high 66 points. That is important for fantasy managers because it suggests Knies is becoming more than simply the big winger who retrieves pucks and finishes chances around the crease.
His 2025-26 season included 140 shots and a 16.4 shooting percentage. In other words, I’m not projecting 29 goals because I expect an unrealistic shooting explosion. I’m projecting a moderate increase in shot volume combined with a finishing rate that Knies has already demonstrated he can sustain for stretches of his NHL career.
Knies also averaged 18:48 per game last season, another encouraging indicator that Toronto already views him as a legitimate top-six forward rather than a complementary winger.
There is also something I like about Knies that doesn’t always show up in basic fantasy projections: he can complement superstar players without needing to dominate possession of the puck.
Matthews and Nylander don’t need another winger demanding touches every shift. They need somebody capable of winning battles, getting to the net, recovering pucks and finishing when defensive coverage collapses toward Toronto’s stars.
Knies fits that job extremely well.
Toronto’s New-Look Offence Raises Matthew Knies’ Fantasy Ceiling
Toronto’s offseason has made Knies more intriguing, not less.
The Maple Leafs added Darren Raddysh, who erupted for 22 goals, 48 assists and 70 points last season before Toronto acquired him from Tampa Bay. The Leafs also selected elite prospect Gavin McKenna first overall in the 2026 NHL Draft.
Adding another high-end puck-moving defenseman and an elite playmaking prospect should create more opportunities throughout Toronto’s lineup.
For Knies, Raddysh could be especially important on the power play.
A unit featuring Matthews’ shooting ability, Nylander’s creativity, Tavares around the middle of the ice, Raddysh at the point and Knies around the crease would give Toronto multiple layers of attack. Knies doesn’t have to be the player running the power play to benefit from it. His value comes from screens, rebounds, tips, puck recoveries and finishing chances from dangerous areas.
McKenna could eventually change the configuration. NHL.com’s early 2026-27 fantasy outlook specifically identifies multiple possible Toronto line combinations involving McKenna, Matthews, Nylander, Tavares and Knies. NHL.com also ranked Knies No. 100 overall in its early fantasy rankings.
That PP1 competition is the main reason I’m projecting 77 points rather than immediately pushing Knies into the 85-point range.
Matthew Knies Fantasy Hockey Draft Value
Knies could become more valuable in multi-category fantasy leagues than his raw point projection suggests.
He recorded 152 hits last season in addition to his 66 points. A winger who can give fantasy owners close to 30 goals, 75-plus points and meaningful physical production has considerably more value than a one-dimensional scorer producing a similar point total.
That makes Knies particularly attractive if your league rewards hits, power-play production and shots in addition to goals and assists.
My approach would be to target Knies as a player with roughly a 75-80 point expectation but an 85-point ceiling.
I would not draft him assuming the absolute ceiling. The smarter move is buying him around the 70-point perception level and letting his deployment beside Toronto’s star players create the profit.
His biggest fantasy risks are straightforward: losing significant PP1 time to McKenna, a reduction in Matthews-related five-on-five minutes, or another season in which Toronto’s overall offence underperforms expectations.
His upside is equally clear.
Knies is entering his prime development years, has already produced 66 points, possesses a fantasy-friendly physical profile and is surrounded by considerably more offensive talent than most young wingers.
My final Matthew Knies fantasy hockey prediction for 2026-27: 29 goals, 48 assists and 77 points in 80 games.
If he locks down a permanent first-unit power-play role and develops immediate chemistry with Toronto’s revamped offence, an 80-85 point breakout is absolutely within reach.
Find the Latest Toronto Maple Leafs News and Fantasy Hockey Predictions
For the latest Toronto Maple Leafs news, NHL trade rumors and Fantasy Hockey predictions, add NHLTradeRumor.com to your bookmarks. You can also join our NHL Fantasy Hockey Pool to test your GM skills against other hockey fans and compete for ultimate bragging rights. Wondering what channel the Leafs game is on TV today? Check our Toronto Maple Leafs TV schedule throughout the season for game times, channels, and broadcast information.
