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The Kirill Marchenko trade rumors connecting the Columbus Blue Jackets winger to the Montreal Canadiens just received another intriguing twist, but there is an important distinction between smoke and confirmation.
Blue Jackets general manager Don Waddell was reportedly in Montreal on Tuesday. Maxime Truman first reported the sighting, but no reason for Waddell’s trip has been established and there is currently no confirmation that he met with Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes or discussed a Marchenko trade.
Then came Wednesday’s more meaningful development.
According to Columbus reporter Aaron Portzline, Waddell had a lengthy conversation with Marchenko as training camp opened. Marchenko’s message to his general manager was straightforward: “I’m going to play my butt off here.” His reported comments address his commitment to playing for Columbus this season, but they do not answer the bigger question surrounding his long-term future with the organization.
That distinction matters.
My read is that the Montreal Canadiens are still a logical team to watch, but the biggest obstacle isn’t whether Marchenko would improve Montreal. He obviously would. The real issue is whether Kent Hughes can construct the type of trade package Waddell has publicly indicated he wants.
And right now, that might be considerably harder than simply offering draft picks and prospects.
Why Kirill Marchenko Still Makes Sense for the Montreal Canadiens
Marchenko is exactly the type of forward teams normally struggle to find on the trade market: 26 years old, 6-foot-3, capable of scoring 25-plus goals and productive enough to drive offence beyond simply finishing chances.
The Columbus Blue Jackets winger recorded 27 goals and 40 assists for 67 points in 76 games last season. That followed a breakout 2024-25 campaign in which he produced 31 goals and 74 points in 79 games. His development has been particularly impressive considering he produced only 42 points as recently as 2023-24.
That three-year progression is significant.
NHLTradeRumor.com Three-Year Scoring Trend
What stands out to me isn’t merely that Marchenko has become a 60-plus-point winger. It is that the floor of his offensive game appears considerably higher than it was two years ago.
He generated 218 shots last season, up from 193 in 2023-24, while his average ice time has also grown substantially.
For Montreal, inserting another legitimate scoring winger into a forward group featuring Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky and Ivan Demidov would make an already dangerous offensive core considerably deeper.
But liking the player is the easy part.
Columbus Blue Jackets Asking Price Is the Real Problem
This is where the Kirill Marchenko trade rumors become much more complicated.
Waddell recently explained on The Eye Test Podcast that he is willing to listen to trade proposals, but Columbus cannot simply remove one of its best offensive players and replace him with futures.
His position was clear: if the Blue Jackets trade Marchenko, they want something that helps the NHL roster immediately. Waddell also emphasized the difficulty of replacing Marchenko’s production at his current cap hit.
Marchenko carries just a $3.85 million cap hit through 2026-27 and is scheduled to become a restricted free agent afterward. His contract originally carried a total value of $11.55 million over three seasons.
That’s an enormous part of his trade value.
A 67-point winger earning $3.85 million produced approximately:
17.4 points per $1 million of cap hit.
For a contender, or a team like Montreal trying to take another step, that contract efficiency is extremely attractive.
It also explains why I don’t believe a package based primarily around a first-round pick and a prospect necessarily gets this done. Columbus wants to compete now. Taking Marchenko out of its lineup creates another top-six hole that Waddell immediately has to fill.
That means the Canadiens may have to put an NHL-calibre forward into the conversation.
NHLTradeRumor.com Marchenko Trade Value Index
This is NHLTradeRumor.com’s proprietary analysis, not a reported asking price from Columbus.
HIGH-VALUE TRADE ASSET
An 86/100 score reflects a player whose combination of age, production and inexpensive contract creates substantial value. The one factor lowering his score is leverage: once an organization’s relationship with a player becomes a public storyline, rival general managers know there may eventually be pressure to make a decision.
Still, Columbus isn’t dealing with a rental approaching unrestricted free agency. Marchenko remains an RFA after this contract, an important detail that gives the Blue Jackets more leverage than some of the trade chatter suggests.
Can the Montreal Canadiens Afford Kirill Marchenko?
The cap situation is workable, but it isn’t quite as simple as subtracting $3.85 million from Montreal’s available space.
PuckPedia’s Canadiens page recently displayed $7.63 million in projected space, but that page’s roster breakdown had not yet incorporated Zachary Bolduc’s newly announced four-year, $4.2 million-AAV contract even though the transaction had been announced officially by Montreal.
That makes a customizable calculator much safer for the page than hard-coding a number that could change during camp.
Montreal Canadiens–Marchenko Salary Cap Calculator
The important takeaway is that salary cap mechanics probably aren’t the biggest barrier. A trade that satisfies Columbus’ demand for an NHL player would naturally send salary back the other way.
The much harder question is whether Montreal is willing to surrender a player the Blue Jackets actually value enough to justify losing Marchenko.
Did Don Waddell’s Montreal Visit Change Anything?
This is where I would be careful separating reporting from inference.
Waddell being in Montreal is noteworthy because Marchenko has repeatedly been connected to the Canadiens. But there is currently no evidence showing his trip was made to negotiate with Kent Hughes.
The more significant development is Waddell’s evolution publicly.
Back in July, he said Marchenko was going to be a Blue Jacket when the season started.
More recently, his position has become that essentially every player can be moved for the right return and that he will listen when teams call about Marchenko.
That doesn’t mean a trade is coming tomorrow.
It does mean the door doesn’t appear as firmly closed as it once did.
And today’s reported conversation between Marchenko and Waddell didn’t eliminate the underlying question. Marchenko committed to playing hard for Columbus; he did not publicly commit his long-term future to Columbus.
For me, that is what makes this one of the NHL trade situations worth watching through training camp. Montreal makes sense for the player. Marchenko makes sense for Montreal. The unresolved issue is whether Montreal makes sense for Columbus.
Until Kent Hughes can offer Waddell the immediate NHL help he appears to be seeking, that may be the question preventing the Kirill Marchenko trade rumors from becoming something more.
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