John Tavares may no longer be the first Toronto Maple Leafs player selected in fantasy hockey drafts, but writing him off would be a mistake. After recording 31 goals and 40 assists for 71 points in all 82 games last season, Tavares proved he can still produce dependable offence deep into his NHL career.
My John Tavares point projections for 2026-27 have him finishing with 28 goals, 39 assists and 67 points in 79 games. That represents a modest step back from last season, but it would still make him a valuable middle-round fantasy centre with upside in leagues that reward power-play production, shots and faceoff wins.
The biggest reason to remain interested is Toronto’s potential power-play unit. Tavares should continue receiving premium opportunities alongside Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Matthew Knies and newly acquired offensive defenceman Darren Raddysh. If that group clicks, Tavares could challenge 70 points again. The risk is not necessarily a sudden collapse. It is a gradual reduction in even-strength pace, ice time or finishing efficiency as Toronto distributes opportunities throughout its lineup. Raddysh was acquired from Tampa Bay on June 19, 2026, after signing an eight-year extension.
John Tavares Fantasy Hockey Projection for 2026-27
| Season | Games | Goals | Assists | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 80 | 29 | 36 | 65 |
| 2024-25 | 75 | 38 | 36 | 74 |
| 2025-26 | 82 | 31 | 40 | 71 |
| 2026-27 projection | 79 | 28 | 39 | 67 |
Tavares recorded 65 points in 2023-24 before increasing his production to 74 points in 75 games during the 2024-25 season. He followed that performance with 71 points last year, giving fantasy managers three consecutive seasons of dependable production.
My projection model applies a 20 percent weight to 2023-24, a 30 percent weight to 2024-25 and a 50 percent weight to last season. That calculation creates a baseline of 70.7 points. Applying an approximately five percent adjustment for potential changes in role, workload and even-strength production brings the final projection to 67 points.
The goal projection receives a slightly larger regression adjustment because Tavares scored 38 goals two seasons ago before dropping to 31 last season. His net-front instincts, quick release and ability to finish loose pucks remain legitimate strengths, but expecting another season near 40 goals would be too aggressive. Twenty-eight goals feels like the responsible projection, while 30 or more remains attainable if his power-play shooting volume stays high.
Why the Maple Leafs Power Play Keeps John Tavares Fantasy Relevant
Raddysh changes the shape of Toronto’s power play. The right-shot defenceman is coming off a breakout season in which he produced 22 goals and 70 points in 73 games. He also established himself as a first-unit power-play option with Tampa Bay, giving Toronto a dangerous shot and puck-moving threat at the blue line.
That matters for Tavares, whose best offensive work often comes below the hash marks, around rebounds and during tight passing sequences near the net. A defenceman capable of consistently getting hard shots through traffic should create more rebound, deflection and retrieval opportunities for Toronto’s veteran centre.
Playing with Matthews and Nylander also prevents penalty killers from focusing entirely on Tavares. Matthews commands attention as an elite shooting threat, Nylander can attack seams off the flank, and Knies provides another heavy presence near the crease. In that setup, Tavares does not need to carry the unit. He needs to win draws, retrieve pucks, find soft ice and finish the opportunities created around him.
From my perspective, Tavares is more attractive in category leagues than his overall point projection may suggest. He can still help in goals, shots, power-play points and faceoffs, giving fantasy managers several ways to recover value even when he does not record an assist. In points-only formats, he is safer than he is spectacular. In multi-category pools, he has a legitimate chance to outperform his average draft position.
There is also an impressive salary-cap efficiency angle for Toronto. Tavares carries a cap hit of approximately $4.389 million through the 2028-29 season. At my projected 67 points, that works out to roughly $65,500 in cap hit per projected point. That is strong value for a veteran who can play centre or wing, contribute on the first power play and move throughout the top six.
The biggest fantasy concern is workload. At this stage of his career, Tavares is unlikely to receive additional minutes simply to chase regular-season production. Toronto has more incentive to keep him fresh and distribute even-strength opportunities throughout the roster. A small decline in five-on-five usage could prevent him from reaching 70 points, even if he remains productive on special teams.
Fantasy managers should draft Tavares for a result in the mid-to-high 60s and treat anything above 70 as a bonus. His realistic floor is approximately 61 points, while his ceiling remains around 72 if he stays healthy, maintains his power-play position and continues converting chances around the net.
Overall, my John Tavares point projections for 2026-27 land at 28 goals, 39 assists and 67 points. He is no longer a fantasy cornerstone, but he remains a reliable secondary centre who could punish managers who focus too heavily on age and ignore deployment, power-play opportunity and category coverage.
John Tavares Career NHL Stats
| Type | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 1266 | 525 | 660 | 1185 | -49 |
| Playoffs | 75 | 28 | 25 | 53 | -20 |
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