The Connor Hellebuyck trade rumors connecting the Winnipeg Jets and Buffalo Sabres just picked up an important new complication, and it could explain why a deal that once looked possible remains stuck.
According to Elliotte Friedman, he believes Sabres goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has Winnipeg on his five-team no-trade list. That matters because Luukkonen was reportedly one of the players Winnipeg wanted back when the Jets and Sabres discussed a Hellebuyck trade around the 2026 NHL Draft. As Friedman put it, Winnipeg wants a goalie, which makes the new development significant.
For me, this does not eliminate Buffalo as a Hellebuyck destination. It changes the equation.
The Sabres still have the assets, competitive window and incentive to investigate adding an elite goaltender. The problem is that one of the cleanest ways to make the hockey and salary-cap portions of the trade work may suddenly require Luukkonen’s approval.
And Winnipeg doesn’t appear ready to settle simply because Hellebuyck wants out.
Why the Buffalo Sabres’ UPL Roadblock Matters for a Connor Hellebuyck Trade
This story actually goes back to the draft.
Friedman reported that Buffalo and Winnipeg had a major disagreement over their first-round picks. Winnipeg wanted Buffalo’s No. 4 selection while keeping its own No. 8 pick. Buffalo wanted No. 8 coming back if it surrendered No. 4.
The Jets ultimately used their selection on Viggo Bjorck, while Buffalo kept its pick and selected Daxon Rudolph. The disagreement helped prevent the Hellebuyck trade from getting across the finish line.
The important update is that the earlier Buffalo trade chatter now has more substance behind it. Friedman has provided details about both the draft-pick negotiations and Luukkonen’s potential inclusion in the package.
Now another obstacle has appeared.
Luukkonen’s contract carries a five-team no-trade list beginning this season, and Friedman says he believes Winnipeg is on it. That has not been publicly confirmed by Luukkonen or the Sabres, so it should be treated as reported information rather than an established fact.
But if Winnipeg is on the list, the Sabres can’t simply include UPL without his cooperation.
That matters enormously because the Jets aren’t approaching a Hellebuyck trade as a rebuilding team.
Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff made that clear after Hellebuyck failed to report to training camp and was suspended. Winnipeg is still trying to win, and Cheveldayoff said the return needs to reflect the calibre of player being traded. He also indicated there is no urgency to make a bad deal simply to end the situation.
The Salary-Cap Math Still Works for Buffalo, Barely
Buffalo currently projects to have approximately $4.16 million in salary-cap space, with a projected cap hit of roughly $99.84 million against the $104 million ceiling. Hellebuyck carries an $8.5 million cap hit. Luukkonen carries a $4.75 million cap hit.
That produces some revealing math.
If Buffalo simply added Hellebuyck today without removing salary, the Sabres would be approximately $4.34 million over the cap.
If Luukkonen’s $4.75 million leaves and Hellebuyck’s $8.5 million arrives, Buffalo’s projected cap hit rises to roughly $103.59 million, leaving only about $408,000 in space.
That is extremely tight, but it works on paper.
If UPL cannot be included, Buffalo has a second problem: it needs to create more cap room while also providing Winnipeg with the kind of NHL-ready return Cheveldayoff appears to want.
Connor Hellebuyck’s Recent Numbers Explain Why Winnipeg Can Afford to Wait
Hellebuyck’s 2025-26 season was disappointing by his extraordinary standards. He finished 23-23-11 with a 2.86 goals-against average and .895 save percentage.
But treating that season in isolation would seriously undervalue him.
Hellebuyck posted a .921 save percentage in 2023-24 before exploding for a .925 save percentage, 2.00 GAA and 47 wins in his Hart Trophy-winning 2024-25 season.
That’s why I don’t expect Winnipeg to treat Hellebuyck like a distressed asset.
His trade request and decision not to report have hurt the Jets’ leverage to some degree, but other teams still know exactly what his ceiling looks like.
The other factor is control.
Hellebuyck has five years remaining on his contract at an $8.5 million annual cap hit and possesses a full no-movement clause. He therefore has substantial control over where Winnipeg can trade him. Buffalo has previously been reported as a destination he would accept.
NHLTradeRumor.com Trade Value Index
The biggest mistake would be assuming Hellebuyck’s trade request means Winnipeg should accept Luukkonen in a straight one-for-one swap.
I don’t see it that way.
Luukkonen is far from a throw-in. He posted a .910 save percentage and 2.52 GAA last season, and at 27 years old with a $4.75 million cap hit through 2028-29, he has meaningful value.
But Hellebuyck’s résumé remains on another level.
My Trade Value Index gives Hellebuyck an 84/100 compared with 72/100 for Luukkonen. Hellebuyck loses points because of his age, full no-movement protection, public trade request and Winnipeg’s reduced negotiating leverage. Luukkonen benefits from being younger and cheaper.
Even after those adjustments, I would still expect Buffalo to add another meaningful asset if UPL formed the centrepiece.
And that’s where Buffalo may decide patience is more valuable than aggression.
Why Buffalo May Be Better Off Waiting
The Sabres don’t have to solve Winnipeg’s problem.
Buffalo’s goaltending was already strong last season. Luukkonen, Alex Lyon and Colten Ellis combined for a .907 save percentage, third-best in the NHL, according to the Sabres’ own training-camp analysis.
Buffalo also won the Atlantic Division and reached the second round last season. This is no longer a desperate organization searching for anything that might get it into the playoffs. It can evaluate Hellebuyck as a move designed to push an already competitive roster closer to the Stanley Cup.
That changes the negotiating dynamic.
If I’m Buffalo GM Jarmo Kekäläinen, I’m still calling Cheveldayoff. I’m still interested. But I’m not moving a premium young player, a massive futures package and solving Winnipeg’s goaltending problem simply because Hellebuyck is available.
I’d wait.
Every week Hellebuyck remains suspended increases the pressure surrounding Winnipeg — even if Cheveldayoff insists he won’t rush.
That does not guarantee the asking price drops. It does, however, give Buffalo very little reason to raise its offer today.
The Connor Hellebuyck trade rumors aren’t going away. The Buffalo Sabres remain one of the most logical teams to watch.
But if Luukkonen really has blocked Winnipeg through his no-trade list, the easiest version of the deal may no longer exist.
And that could force both teams back to the drawing board.
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