My Alexis Lafreniere prediction for the 2026-27 NHL season is 31 goals, 40 assists and 71 points in 82 games, and for the first time in his career, I believe there is legitimate upside beyond that number.
Lafreniere finished last season with 24 goals and 33 assists for 57 points in 82 games, matching his NHL career high in points. On the surface, going from 57 to 71 points might look like an aggressive Fantasy Hockey projection. Dig a little deeper into how his season finished, however, and the situation becomes considerably more interesting.
The most important number isn’t 57.
It’s 28 points in 29 games.
After Artemi Panarin was removed from the Rangers lineup and eventually traded to the Los Angeles Kings, Lafreniere produced 14 goals and 14 assists over his final 29 games. That’s a 79-point pace over 82 games. His ice time increased, his offensive responsibility grew and, most importantly for fantasy managers, he finally received meaningful power-play opportunities.
That’s why Lafreniere is one of my favourite potential Fantasy Hockey breakout candidates for 2026-27.
Alexis Lafreniere 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey Point Projection
Alexis Lafreniere Career NHL Stats
| Type | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 462 | 116 | 134 | 250 | -13 |
| Playoffs | 43 | 10 | 13 | 23 | -1 |
Why the Rangers Power Play Could Push Lafreniere Past 70 Points
This is where my projection separates from simply extrapolating Lafreniere’s previous seasons.
Lafreniere had nine power-play goals and six power-play assists last season, giving him 15 power-play points while averaging roughly 2:25 of power-play time per game. He also recorded 164 shots and converted at 14.6 percent.
Now look at what New York could put around him.
A projected Rangers PP1 has Adam Fox running the point with J.T. Miller, Mika Zibanejad, Lafreniere and newcomer Pavel Dorofeyev up front. That’s potentially a significant fantasy development. Dorofeyev scored 37 goals for Vegas last season, including 20 power-play goals, and finished with 30 points on the man advantage.
That should force penalty kills to respect multiple shooting threats.
Zibanejad remains dangerous from his familiar shooting areas, Dorofeyev can finish, Miller can distribute and work around the net, and Fox remains an elite puck-moving option from the blue line. Lafreniere doesn’t have to become the focal point of that unit to benefit from it.
He simply needs to stay on it.
Lafreniere’s Post-Panarin Production Matters
One of my biggest mistakes when evaluating fantasy players is placing too much emphasis on a player’s full-season total when his role changed dramatically during the year.
That’s exactly what happened here.
Lafreniere went from 10 goals, 19 assists and 29 points over his first 53 games to 14 goals, 14 assists and 28 points over his final 29 after Panarin left the picture.
I’m not projecting that final stretch straight across 82 games. Doing that would put him near 79 points, and that’s too aggressive for my baseline projection.
Instead, I’m splitting the difference.
My 31-goal, 40-assist, 71-point projection assumes Lafreniere keeps the larger offensive role but experiences some normal regression from his torrid finish.
For fantasy managers, that’s exactly the profile I want to target: a player whose previous full-season totals may cause other managers to undervalue him while his underlying opportunity has materially improved.
My Fantasy Hockey Take on Alexis Lafreniere
Lafreniere is still only entering his age-25 season, and this may be the first time the Rangers truly enter a season needing him to be one of their primary offensive players instead of asking him to complement established stars.
Panarin is gone. Vincent Trocheck was traded to Utah. Dorofeyev has arrived as another shooting threat. NHL.com’s July projection had Lafreniere in New York’s top six alongside Mika Zibanejad, while the Rangers’ offseason restructuring has clearly created additional responsibility for their younger core.
That’s the part of this projection I find most compelling.
The former first-overall pick doesn’t necessarily need a dramatic improvement in individual skill to reach 70 points. He needs deployment, power-play time and volume.
The deployment appears to be coming.
If Lafreniere can push his shot total from 164 into the 190-200 range while keeping his shooting percentage somewhere around his established level, 30 goals becomes very realistic. Add a full season on PP1 and 40 assists is hardly unreasonable.
My official Alexis Lafreniere Fantasy Hockey projection: 31 goals, 40 assists and 71 points in 82 games.
I would view roughly 62 points as the reasonable floor, with 75-80 points representing the upside scenario if New York’s revamped power play clicks and Lafreniere maintains the offensive confidence he showed during the second half of last season.
That makes Lafreniere a player I would rather draft one round too early than one round too late in 2026-27 fantasy leagues.
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