The hot stove of NHL rumors is burning bright on Long Island, and at the center of the blaze is standout defenseman Noah Dobson. According to a report from Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff, the 25-year-old restricted free agent is seeking a blockbuster long-term contract with an eye-watering $11 million average annual value (AAV).
If a deal in this stratosphere is reached, it would represent the richest AAV in New York Islanders history, a clear signal of the changing landscape of defenseman compensation in the league.
The $11 Million Question: Is Dobson Worth It?
Let’s be clear: an $11 million price tag for a defenseman is reserved for the truly elite, Norris Trophy-caliber players. Dobson had a phenomenal 2023-24 campaign where he tallied an impressive 70 points, showcasing his offensive prowess from the blue line. However, the 2024-25 season saw a dip in production, partly due to injuries. This inconsistency is likely a sticking point for Islanders’ management. While Dobson’s potential is undeniable, committing such a significant portion of the salary cap requires unwavering certainty in his ability to be a consistent top-tier offensive defenseman.
From my perspective, this initial ask from Dobson’s camp is a classic negotiation tactic. They’re starting high, aiming to set a favorable anchor for the discussions to come. A more realistic landing spot, and one that I believe both sides can eventually find common ground on, is likely in the $9 million to $10 million range. This would still be a massive raise for Dobson and a significant commitment from the Islanders, but it would better reflect his body of work and potential without completely hamstringing the team’s future financial flexibility.
The Bouchard Barometer
An intriguing subplot in this negotiation is the contract status of Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard. Also an RFA, Bouchard is in a similar position to Dobson as a young, offensively gifted right-shot defenseman. It’s no coincidence that both players are represented by the same agency. The Dobson camp is likely playing a patient game, waiting for Bouchard to sign his new deal. Bouchard’s contract will undoubtedly set a benchmark, and you can bet that Dobson’s agent will be using it as a key comparable in their negotiations with the Islanders. If Bouchard secures a deal north of $10 million, Dobson’s $11 million ask suddenly seems much more plausible.
While Seravalli noted the absence of trade talks, the Islanders are in a delicate position. They have a homegrown talent on their hands who is on the cusp of stardom. Overpaying could hinder their ability to build a consistent contender, but letting a player of Dobson’s caliber walk would be a massive step backward. The coming weeks will be a fascinating chess match between a player looking to cash in on his potential and a team trying to balance contention with fiscal responsibility.
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