The Montreal Canadiens are no longer a rebuilding team that should be satisfied simply to get into the Stanley Cup Playoffs. My projection for 2026-27 is 49-25-10, good for 108 points and second place in the Atlantic Division. I see Montreal as a likely playoff team with legitimate second-round or Eastern Conference Final upside, although I am not ready to put the Canadiens in the NHL’s top tier of Stanley Cup favorites.
There is an important catch hidden inside that 108-point prediction. The NHL has expanded to an 84-game schedule for 2026-27, meaning 108 points would actually represent a slightly lower points percentage than Montreal’s 106 points in 82 games last season. That is intentional in my forecast. Montreal reached the Eastern Conference Final and possesses enormous internal upside, but the Canadiens also finished last season below 50 percent in several important 5-on-5 possession metrics while converting scoring chances at an unusually high rate.
The biggest questions are straightforward: Who becomes Ivan Demidov’s long-term center, and can Jakub Dobes establish himself as a dependable No. 1 goaltender?
My read on this roster is that Montreal’s ceiling is extremely high. Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, Demidov and Lane Hutson give the Canadiens high-end skill at premium ages. Suzuki exploded for 101 points last season, Caufield scored 51 goals, Hutson produced 78 points from the blue line, Slafkovsky reached 30 goals and 73 points, while Demidov delivered 62 points as a rookie.
That is not hypothetical upside anymore. It is NHL production.
The defence is equally intriguing. Noah Dobson, Hutson, Mike Matheson and Kaiden Guhle give Martin St. Louis multiple puck-moving options, and David Reinbacher is getting close. NHL.com projects Reinbacher to arrive in the NHL this season after 24 points in 57 AHL games and a brief two-game Montreal audition in 2025-26.
The biggest concern I see is that Montreal’s results ran ahead of its territorial play last season. Sportsnet’s playoff preview, using Natural Stat Trick data, had the Canadiens at 48.64 percent of 5-on-5 shot attempts and 48.59 percent of expected goals, while their 11.3 percent 5-on-5 shooting percentage ranked first. Montreal still scored 3.40 goals per game, but counting on league-leading finishing every year is dangerous.
That is why development from Demidov, Slafkovsky and Hutson must be accompanied by better possession and defensive control.
Montreal Canadiens Offseason Changes for 2026-27
Montreal’s offseason was notable because general manager Kent Hughes resisted the temptation to make a massive move after reaching the conference final.
Players Added
Brett Berard was acquired from the New York Rangers on June 26 and signed a one-year deal. He is more likely to battle for a depth role than transform the top six, but his speed and age fit Montreal’s roster.
Reilly Walsh signed a one-year, two-way contract after producing 46 points in 68 KHL games. He provides offensive depth on defence rather than a guaranteed NHL position.
Montreal also added organizational depth through players including Sasha Pastujov and Maksymilian Szuber, while Derek Lalonde joined Martin St. Louis’ staff as associate coach.
The most important offseason transactions may actually have been contracts. Demidov signed an eight-year, $73.2 million extension with a $9.15 million AAV beginning in 2027-28, while Dobes signed a three-year extension beginning the same season. Lane Hutson’s eight-year, $70.8 million extension starts this year.
Players Who Left
The most emotional departure was Brendan Gallagher, who was traded to Vancouver for future considerations after 14 seasons in Montreal. His seven goals and 23 points can be replaced statistically, but his competitive identity had been part of this organization for more than a decade.
Joe Veleno signed with the Rangers after Montreal did not issue him a qualifying offer. Patrik Laine, limited to five games because of a core-muscle injury last season, entered the summer as an unrestricted free agent and remains outside Montreal’s projected roster.
Overall, I do not view Montreal as dramatically better because of outside additions. I view it as a potentially better team because most of its most important players are still improving.
Montreal Canadiens 2025-26 Top Five Scorers
Montreal’s five highest-scoring players last season were Suzuki, Caufield, Hutson, Slafkovsky and Demidov. The fascinating part is that four of the five were 25 or younger entering this season, while Suzuki is still firmly in his prime. Official NHL statistics list the following totals.
What Will Define the Montreal Canadiens 2026-27 Season?
Second-line center is the position that could change everything. Dach has the skill profile to play there, but he was limited to 37 games last season and has not played more than 58 games in any of his past four seasons. Kapanen scored 22 goals but was scratched for 12 of Montreal’s 19 playoff games, while Evans is more naturally suited to a checking role.
If Dach stays healthy and establishes chemistry with Demidov, Montreal’s lineup suddenly becomes much harder to match.
Then there is the crease. Dobes went 29-10-4 with a .901 save percentage before posting a .908 in 19 playoff appearances. Fowler went 9-6-2 with a .908 save percentage in 17 NHL games. Sam Montembeault remains under contract as well, giving Montreal three legitimate NHL options entering camp.
What stands out to me is that this is no longer simply a goaltending-depth question. Montreal has to determine which two goalies are part of the next phase of the roster.
Projected 2026-27 Canadiens Lineup
This is my projected lineup, not a confirmed opening-night roster. Zachary Bolduc and Arber Xhekaj remained unsigned RFAs when the cap information for this preview was checked.
Forwards
Caufield – Suzuki – Slafkovsky
Newhook – Dach – Demidov
Texier – Danault – Anderson
Bolduc – Kapanen – Evans
Extra: Berard
Defence
Matheson – Dobson
Hutson – Struble
Guhle – Carrier
Next up: Reinbacher, Xhekaj if signed
Goalies
Starter: Jakub Dobes
Backup/1B: Jacob Fowler
Also competing: Sam Montembeault
NHL.com’s July projection similarly had the Suzuki line intact, Demidov in the top six and Dobes/Fowler atop its projected goalie depth chart.
Montreal Canadiens 2026-27 Point Projection
Projected record: 49-25-10
Projected points: 108
Atlantic Division: 2nd
Eastern Conference: approximately 4th
Playoff outlook: Likely playoff team
The math is straightforward: 49 wins x 2 points + 10 overtime/shootout losses = 108 points. The record totals 84 games, matching the NHL’s expanded 2026-27 schedule.
The reason I’m not projecting 115-plus points is Montreal’s underlying 5-on-5 profile. The reason I am still comfortable at 108 is the age curve. Demidov, Slafkovsky, Hutson, Guhle, Fowler and Reinbacher are at ages where improvement is more reasonable to project than decline.
2026-27 Atlantic Division Standings Prediction
My Atlantic forecast gives Tampa Bay the edge because its proven core remains formidable and John Carlson and Ilya Mikheyev were added this summer. Florida should rebound after acquiring Brady Tkachuk. Buffalo lost Bowen Byram but remains dangerous, while Boston’s addition of JJ Peterka keeps the Bruins in the wild-card conversation. Ottawa’s post-Brady Tkachuk lineup remains competitive but less certain.
I have Montreal second because I trust the Canadiens’ young core to improve enough to offset some shooting regression. Tampa is still the safer regular-season bet, while Florida’s aggressive retool makes it difficult to push the Panthers much lower.
Montreal Canadiens Salary Cap Analysis
Cap information checked: September 2, 2026.
PuckPedia lists Montreal with approximately $9.78 million in projected cap space, a projected cap hit of approximately $94.22 million, and an NHL ceiling of $104 million. That projection uses a 21-player active roster and currently lists both Bolduc and Xhekaj as unsigned RFAs, so their eventual contracts would reduce the available room.
Noah Dobson carries the largest 2026-27 cap hit at $9.5 million. Hutson moves to $8.85 million this season, while Matheson’s new $6 million extension also begins. Montreal also retains $3.25 million of Gallagher’s cap hit this season.
This is one of Montreal’s biggest competitive advantages. The Canadiens can afford to wait for the right top-six opportunity rather than manufacture a trade because they are desperate for space.
NHLTradeRumor.com 2026-27 Team Outlook Model
This is an original NHLTradeRumor.com analytical model, not a third-party metric. Each category receives an equal 1-10 weighting based on current roster quality, recent results, age trajectory, prospect readiness, cap flexibility and organizational stability.
My biggest downgrade is goaltending because Dobes has not yet proven he can reproduce his playoff level over a full season as the unquestioned starter. My highest grades go to offense, prospects and cap flexibility.
Canadiens Trade Value Watch
Arber Xhekaj is the obvious player to monitor entering camp. This should not be interpreted as confirmation Montreal will trade him. He remains an unsigned RFA, and we previously reported outside interest while explicitly noting that nothing was imminent. As of September 2, no trade has occurred.
Josh Anderson, Alexandre Carrier and Montembeault also enter the final seasons of their current contracts, giving Hughes several potential deadline decisions. That does not mean any of them must be moved. A team projected to contend may value veteran depth more than additional draft capital.
What Happened With Earlier Canadiens Reports?
We have followed Xhekaj’s situation throughout the summer, including reported outside interest and the possibility that Montreal’s crowded defence could eventually affect his future. The responsible update entering September is simple: the situation remains unresolved, not confirmed. Xhekaj was still listed as an RFA on PuckPedia on September 2, and Montreal had not announced a trade.
That distinction is important whenever following NHL trade rumors.
Four Things I Am Watching
My biggest concern: 5-on-5 regression. Montreal cannot assume a league-leading 5-on-5 shooting percentage will simply repeat. Better puck possession would make the Canadiens much more sustainable.
The player who could change everything: Ivan Demidov. If 62 points was merely his NHL introduction rather than something close to his ceiling, Montreal could eventually have two legitimate scoring lines.
The offseason decision I like most: patience. Hughes did not react to the conference-final run by spending aggressively on a marginal upgrade. With cap room and prospect depth, waiting for the right player makes more sense.
My biggest X-factor: Jakub Dobes. Montreal can survive modest offensive regression if Dobes moves from a .901 regular-season save percentage toward the .908 level he produced during the playoffs.
For fantasy hockey, Suzuki, Caufield, Hutson, Slafkovsky and Demidov all deserve serious attention, while the Dobes-Fowler-Montembeault situation creates significantly more uncertainty for fantasy managers. NHL.com has called Montreal’s young fantasy core one of the league’s strongest.
Final Montreal Canadiens 2026-27 Prediction
Projected Record: 49-25-10
Projected Points: 108
Division Finish: 2nd Atlantic
Projected Conference Finish: 4th Eastern Conference
Playoff Prediction: Likely playoff team; capable of winning multiple rounds
Stanley Cup Outlook: Dark-horse contender, not a top-tier favorite
Biggest X-Factor: Jakub Dobes
The reason I’m higher on Montreal than I would be on most teams with sub-50-percent expected-goal numbers is the age and quality of the Canadiens’ core. Internal improvement is not guaranteed, but there are more credible breakout candidates here than on almost any veteran team.
To outperform 108 points, Montreal needs the second line to become a real threat, Dobes or Fowler to give the club above-average goaltending, and the Canadiens’ 5-on-5 process to catch up to their scoring talent. If those things happen simultaneously, the conversation changes from “Can Montreal make another deep playoff run?” to “Can Montreal win the Stanley Cup?”
