Mathew Barzal could be one of the more intriguing fantasy hockey values on the New York Islanders heading into 2026-27, especially if fantasy managers focus too heavily on what he did last season instead of what could change around him.
Barzal produced 19 goals and 53 assists for 72 points in 81 games last season, giving fantasy managers solid production without delivering one of those explosive seasons we know he is capable of producing. The Islanders officially confirmed his 72-point finish in their season recap.
My 2026-27 Mathew Barzal projection: 22 goals, 58 assists and 80 points in 80 games.
That might look aggressive at first glance, but I’m not forecasting a massive breakout. I’m essentially looking for eight additional points from a player who has already demonstrated an 80-point ceiling during his NHL career. The path to those extra points, in my opinion, isn’t necessarily at even strength. It’s the power play.
And that could make Barzal one of the more interesting fantasy hockey targets on draft day.
Mathew Barzal 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey Projection
The biggest factor in my Mathew Barzal fantasy hockey projection is simple: the New York Islanders desperately need more production with the man advantage.
The Islanders finished the 2025-26 season ranked 30th in the NHL on the power play at only 16.5%. Brayden Schenn and Bo Horvat both identified puck movement and generating more offense toward the net as areas that needed improvement.
That is important because fantasy managers shouldn’t view Barzal’s 72 points as occurring in an ideal offensive environment.
They came despite one of the NHL’s least productive power plays.
If Pete DeBoer can simply get the Islanders closer to league-average production, there could be a meaningful increase in Barzal’s power-play assists.
A potential unit involving Barzal, Brayden Schenn, Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri and Matthew Schaefer gives New York several different weapons. Horvat supplies a legitimate finishing option, Palmieri can shoot, Schenn brings another net-front and shooting threat, while Schaefer gives the Islanders an exceptionally dynamic option from the blue line.
Schaefer’s rookie production is particularly interesting for Barzal’s fantasy outlook. The young defenseman scored 23 goals in his first NHL season, tying the NHL record for goals by a rookie defenseman. Schenn also produced 11 points in 19 games after joining the Islanders.
Those aren’t insignificant additions when projecting Barzal’s ceiling.
Why the Islanders Power Play Could Unlock Mathew Barzal’s Fantasy Ceiling
Barzal has always been more valuable as a playmaker than as a pure goal scorer, so I’m not projecting some sudden jump into the 30-goal range.
He recorded 184 shots with a 10.3% shooting percentage last season. If Barzal gets closer to 190 shots and converts at roughly 11.5%, a 22-goal projection becomes very reasonable.
The bigger jump in my model comes from assists.
I’m projecting 58 assists, five more than last season, with much of that increase coming from improved special-teams production.
From a fantasy perspective, that is exactly where I’d be looking for value. Fantasy managers sometimes chase the player coming off the monster season, but some of the best draft-day values are established stars whose surrounding circumstances have improved without their previous season looking spectacular.
Barzal fits that profile.
Mathew Barzal Career NHL Stats
| Type | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 191 | 39 | 47 | 86 | -4 |
| Playoffs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Should You Draft Mathew Barzal in Fantasy Hockey?
I would be comfortable targeting Barzal if his draft position reflects a 65-to-75-point player rather than pricing in an 80-plus-point season.
There is upside here without needing everything to go perfectly.
The Islanders have legitimate finishers around him, Schaefer should only become more comfortable quarterbacking NHL offense in his second season, and New York has an obvious incentive to overhaul a power play that simply wasn’t good enough last year.
There is also encouraging news regarding Barzal’s health. He left the 2026 IIHF World Championship because of a minor pre-existing injury, but the Islanders said the decision was precautionary and that he was expected to have a normal offseason and be ready for training camp.
That doesn’t eliminate injury risk, but it’s enough for me to project approximately 80 games rather than bake a significant health discount into his fantasy forecast.
Final Mathew Barzal fantasy hockey prediction: 22 goals, 58 assists, 80 points in 80 games.
For me, Barzal isn’t necessarily a player I’d reach multiple rounds to select. He is someone I’d circle as a potential value if other fantasy managers underestimate how much even an average Islanders power play could change his numbers.
If New York finally fixes its special teams, an 80-point Barzal season won’t look surprising at all.
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