
The chatter around Evan Bouchard’s upcoming contract is reaching a fever pitch, and for good reason. With the young Oilers defenseman set to become a restricted free agent this summer, the question on everyone’s mind is: will he command an $11 million average annual value (AVV)? The Oilers, naturally, are hoping to keep that number significantly lower.
Brian Lawton, a respected NHL insider and former general manager, has thrown fuel on the fire by suggesting Bouchard’s value surpasses that of Jakob Chychrun, who recently inked an eight-year, $72 million deal with the Washington Capitals. Lawton even floated the idea of Bouchard reaching Rasmus Dahlin’s $11 million AVV territory. However, let’s inject some reality into this conversation.
While Bouchard’s offensive production is undeniably impressive, and yes, it’s a significant asset for the Oilers, context matters. He’s on track for a solid 60-point season, but that’s a step down from his phenomenal 82-point campaign last year. Dahlin, on the other hand, is a more complete defenseman, contributing significantly in all zones and wearing a leadership role. That added responsibility and well-rounded game justify his hefty paycheck.
Comparing Bouchard’s Value: Chychrun vs. Dahlin
The Oilers, in their negotiations, will likely leverage the Chychrun comparison, aiming for a figure closer to $9 million annually. This feels like the most reasonable approach. Chychrun’s contract sets a solid benchmark for a high-producing, top-pairing defenseman. It’s important to note that Bouchard’s power play production is significant, and that is a major factor in his value. That said, I anticipate that cooler heads will prevail, and the final number will likely settle around the $10 million mark.
The $11 million ask is a strong opening position, but it’s a high-stakes gamble. An offer sheet is improbable due to the astronomical compensation involved, and the Oilers hold considerable leverage in these negotiations. Ultimately, the Oilers need to find a balance between rewarding Bouchard’s offensive prowess and maintaining salary cap flexibility. The team is in a win-now window, and overpaying for a single player could hinder their ability to build a championship-caliber roster.
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