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Erik Karlsson remains one of the most intriguing Pittsburgh Penguins players heading into the 2026-27 fantasy hockey season, and I believe another 70-point campaign is firmly within reach. My projection for Karlsson is 18 goals, 55 assists and 73 points.
That projection isn’t based on reputation alone. Karlsson produced 15 goals, 51 assists and 66 points in only 75 games last season while remaining one of the NHL’s most productive offensive defensemen. More importantly for fantasy managers, his role has not disappeared. Karlsson remains positioned to quarterback Pittsburgh’s top power-play unit alongside Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Rickard Rakell and potentially offseason addition Andrei Kuzmenko.
That combination gives Karlsson something fantasy managers should never overlook: elite opportunity.
Karlsson doesn’t need to rediscover his 101-point Norris Trophy season to provide major fantasy value when he’s feeding Crosby, Malkin and Rakell on the man advantage. If Pittsburgh’s power play remains productive, Karlsson should once again have a realistic path toward 70-plus points.
Erik Karlsson — 2026-27
Sidney Crosby • Evgeni Malkin • Rickard Rakell • Andrei Kuzmenko • Erik Karlsson
Erik Karlsson’s 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey Projection
NHLTradeRumor.com projection:
- Goals: 18
- Assists: 55
- Points: 73
- Fantasy range: 67-77 points
- Primary role: PP1 quarterback
The number that stands out to me isn’t necessarily 73 points. It’s the possibility that Karlsson could once again approach 20 goals.
Karlsson scored 15 times last season, and his offensive profile continues to separate him from most NHL defensemen. Pittsburgh doesn’t use him merely as a safe puck-moving defender. He is encouraged to jump into the attack, find shooting lanes and create offense from the blue line.
That matters enormously in fantasy hockey.
Goals from defensemen are difficult to replace, which gives Karlsson additional value even if he doesn’t finish among the league leaders in assists.
His 51 assists last season also demonstrate that the playmaking component remains intact. Projecting 55 assists assumes that Karlsson continues receiving heavy offensive-zone usage and maintains his role on Pittsburgh’s first power-play unit.
Pittsburgh’s Power Play Keeps Karlsson’s Fantasy Ceiling High
This is the biggest reason I remain bullish on Erik Karlsson.
A projected Penguins power-play group featuring Crosby, Malkin, Rakell, Kuzmenko and Karlsson gives him multiple high-end finishing options whenever Pittsburgh establishes possession.
Crosby remains exceptional around the net and below the goal line. Malkin can create shots from multiple areas. Rakell brings finishing ability, while Kuzmenko has previously demonstrated that he can be dangerous around the net on the power play.
Karlsson’s job is exactly what fantasy owners want it to be: distribute the puck, create shooting lanes and generate offense.
Pittsburgh finished among the NHL’s better power-play teams last season, so we’re not projecting Karlsson into an unproductive situation. He collected 26 power-play points in 2025-26, which was one of the better totals among NHL defensemen.
Even maintaining roughly that level would provide a strong foundation for another 65-plus-point season. A slight increase could push him past 70.
Why I Have Karlsson Above the NHL.com Projection
NHL.com has Karlsson projected for 70 points entering the season.
I’m slightly more aggressive at 73.
My reasoning comes down to opportunity rather than expecting some late-career offensive explosion.
Karlsson scored 66 points in 75 games last season, an 0.88 points-per-game pace. Simply maintaining something close to that production over another healthy season puts 70 points directly in play.
My biggest concern isn’t Karlsson’s offensive ability. It’s age, games played and whether Pittsburgh eventually reduces his workload.
But until we actually see his PP1 responsibilities diminish, I’m reluctant to dramatically discount his fantasy value simply because he’s getting older.
That’s an important distinction.
Fantasy hockey isn’t about drafting the player Karlsson was five years ago. It’s about drafting the opportunities Karlsson is likely to receive this season.
And those opportunities remain extremely valuable.
My Fantasy Hockey Read on Erik Karlsson
I would view Karlsson as a potentially undervalued fantasy defenseman if managers in your league become overly focused on age.
There are safer younger options at the position, but very few defensemen combine Karlsson’s offensive instincts, shooting ability, playmaking and access to an established power-play core.
His ceiling obviously isn’t the 101-point monster season we saw previously.
It doesn’t need to be.
If Karlsson produces somewhere around 18 goals and 55 assists for 73 points, while contributing another strong season of power-play production, he’s capable of delivering significant value from the defense position.
My realistic downside range would be roughly 65-67 points if injuries or reduced offensive deployment become factors. The upside approaches 75-77 if Pittsburgh’s power play catches fire and Karlsson remains healthy.
That makes him a player I’d be comfortable targeting once the obvious elite fantasy defensemen are off the board.
Erik Karlsson Fantasy Hockey Prediction: 73 Points
My final 2026-27 Erik Karlsson prediction is 18 goals, 55 assists and 73 points.
The combination of proven offensive production and a premium Pittsburgh Penguins power-play role makes another productive season more likely than a dramatic decline in my projection.
Fantasy managers shouldn’t draft Karlsson expecting another 100-point season.
But overlooking him because of age could be just as significant a mistake.
A 70-plus-point defenseman who quarterbacks a power play featuring Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin still deserves plenty of attention on fantasy draft day.
More Pittsburgh Penguins News and Fantasy Hockey Predictions
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