Now that GM Jim Nill has locked up Thomas Harley, the spotlight in Dallas turns squarely onto Jason Robertson. And folks, this is far more complicated than a standard bridge-or-buy-long-term debate. Based on Pierre Lebrun’s reporting, the Stars are in a delicate “wait-and-see” position with their 26-year-old winger, and as an analyst, I can tell you this situation has all the hallmarks of a major offseason fork in the road.
The key isn’t just that Robertson is an RFA next July. It’s that he has arbitration rights and is only one year away from UFA status. This is maximum leverage. Robertson’s camp has no incentive to take a team-friendly deal. They can force a one-year arbitration award that walks him directly to the open market, which is a nightmare scenario for Dallas. The Stars must get him signed long-term (think 8 years) or trade his rights. There is no middle ground.
Did the Rantanen Deal Make Robertson Expendable?
Let’s be blunt: the Mikko Rantanen trade at last year’s deadline changed everything. It was a “win-now” blockbuster, but it also pushed Robertson, a former 100-point-plus player, to the second line. He’s playing well there, with nine points in his last 11, but the financial reality of the NHL is that you can’t realistically pay two wingers top-of-the-market money. Rantanen is “the guy” now. Can Dallas commit $10.5 million or more to Robertson to be “the other guy”? This is why the Stars were “listening” to offers in the offseason. They weren’t shopping him, but they were gauging his value.
The Leverage Game: Arbitration and UFA Status
This is a classic case of high-stakes asset management. The Stars want to keep Robertson. He’s a homegrown, elite-scoring talent. But “want” and “can” are two different things in a hard-cap league. His arbitration rights give him a powerful negotiating tool, and his UFA eligibility next year is the hammer. If contract talks, which Lebrun speculates might not even begin until the offseason, stall, Nill will be forced to act. He cannot risk letting an asset this valuable walk for nothing. My take? The Stars will try to sign him, but if the AAV starts with a “11,” they will pivot and execute a trade this summer for a package that fills other needs.
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