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My Dylan Guenther point projections for 2026-27 have the Utah Mammoth winger producing 42 goals, 42 assists and 84 points over the NHL’s new 84-game schedule.
Guenther’s breakout is no longer something fantasy managers can dismiss as potential. It already happened. The 23-year-old erupted for 40 goals, 33 assists and 73 points in 79 games last season, leading Utah in goals, even-strength goals and shots on goal. He also became the first player in Mammoth history to reach the 40-goal mark.
What makes Guenther especially interesting for 2026-27 is that I don’t believe we have seen the finished product. His goal scoring is already elite, but the next jump could come through assists. With Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz and Mikhail Sergachev surrounding him on a dangerous Utah power play, Guenther has a realistic path toward becoming a point-per-game fantasy winger. NHL.com currently projects 83 points. I’m going one higher at 84.
Dylan Guenther Fantasy Hockey Projection for 2026-27
Guenther scored at a 0.92 point-per-game rate last season. Maintaining that exact production across the expanded 84-game NHL schedule would produce roughly 78 points. The League moves from 82 to 84 games beginning this season, giving every player two additional scoring opportunities.
My projection adds approximately six points of organic development. I don’t consider that aggressive for a player entering his age-23 season who has improved from 35 points to 60 and then 73 over his past three NHL seasons.
Can Dylan Guenther Score 40 Goals Again for the Utah Mammoth?
I believe 40 goals is now the expectation rather than Guenther’s ceiling.
He generated 242 shots last season and scored on 16.5 percent of them. That percentage is high, but the encouraging part is the quality of the chances he generated. NHL EDGE data had Guenther in the 97th percentile in midrange shots on goal, while his 16 high-danger goals ranked in the 92nd percentile among forwards. His average shot speed was also in the 93rd percentile.
This is an important distinction for fantasy managers. A 40-goal season built on 120 shots and a wildly unsustainable shooting percentage would make me nervous. Guenther’s season was supported by legitimate shot volume, elite shooting metrics and an offensive role that should continue expanding.
My personal read is that Guenther may actually shoot more this season. His average ice time was only 17:24 despite scoring 40 goals. Utah has every incentive to push him toward 18-plus minutes per night, particularly after seeing him average 20:47 during the playoffs.
If Guenther reaches 255-to-265 shots and maintains a shooting percentage around 16 percent, another 40-plus-goal season becomes very realistic. That’s why my official forecast lands at 42 goals.
The Utah Mammoth Power Play Could Push Guenther Past 80 Points
Guenther produced 24 power-play points last season, including nine goals. That already made the man advantage a major component of his fantasy value.
Utah’s first unit should remain loaded. NHL.com’s current fantasy outlook specifically identifies Guenther, Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley and Mikhail Sergachev as major pieces of the top power play. Nick Schmaltz is also a natural candidate for a prominent role after leading Utah with 11 power-play goals last season.
The exact five-man unit can still change during training camp, but Guenther’s position should be secure. His shot is simply too valuable to remove from PP1.
I am projecting 28 power-play points, a four-point increase from last season. That improvement accounts for a healthier Cooley, continued growth from Sergachev as Utah’s quarterback and a Mammoth offense that now has greater depth after adding Vincent Trocheck and Anders Lee.
Why the Assists Could Be Guenther’s Biggest Fantasy Breakout
The goal projection almost writes itself. The more interesting number for me is 42 assists.
Guenther recorded exactly 33 assists in each of the past two seasons. That consistency suggests his playmaking floor is already established, but it also leaves room for a jump if Utah’s finishing around him improves.
Cooley is one of the NHL’s fastest young centers and is projected for 80 points by NHL.com. Keller is projected for 87, and Sergachev for 66. Utah now has several players capable of converting Guenther’s passes rather than relying on him to finish virtually every dangerous sequence himself.
Guenther’s growth as a playmaker is the part of his game I would watch closely. If he moves from the low-30s into the low-40s in assists while maintaining his goal production, the difference between a 75-point winger and an 85-point fantasy star disappears quickly.
Dylan Guenther Fantasy Projection Model
The 92-point ceiling is not my expectation, but it is realistic enough to matter on draft day. Guenther would need a healthy 84-game season, roughly 45 goals and a major increase in power-play assists to reach that level.
More importantly, the floor has become unusually attractive. Even if his shooting percentage pulls back, Guenther’s shot volume, PP1 role and increasing ice time should make a complete collapse unlikely.
NHL.com’s 83-Point Projection Confirms Guenther Has Entered the Elite Tier
NHL.com currently projects Guenther for 83 points and ranks him 33rd overall in fantasy hockey. He is also considered a fringe top-15 option among NHL players age 25 and younger for keeper formats.
That is important because my 84-point forecast is not built around an extreme breakout scenario. Independent NHL fantasy projections are effectively arriving at the same conclusion: Guenther’s next step should push him comfortably past last season’s 73 points.
Where I become especially interested is in category leagues. Guenther was one of only six NHL players last season to combine at least 40 goals, 240 shots and 60 hits. That makes him much more than a points-only winger.
A player capable of contributing goals, shots, power-play production and some physicality gives fantasy managers far more lineup flexibility than a one-dimensional scorer.
Dylan Guenther Salary-Cap Value Snapshot
Guenther is signed to an eight-year contract carrying a reported average annual value of approximately $7.14 million. Dividing that AAV by my 84-point projection produces an illustrative cost of roughly $85,000 per projected point. It is not official NHL cap accounting, but it highlights how valuable Guenther could become if he develops into a consistent 80-plus-point winger while locked into a long-term contract.
Guenther has made his commitment to Utah clear, previously saying, “Utah is where I want to be.”
Where Should Dylan Guenther Be Drafted in Fantasy Hockey?
I would be comfortable targeting Guenther in the third round of a standard 12-team fantasy draft, and I would consider him even earlier in goal-heavy or keeper formats.
The biggest mistake would be treating last season’s 40 goals as an outlier without looking at how they were created. Guenther had legitimate shot volume, elite NHL EDGE shooting metrics and a permanent role in Utah’s offensive core.
There is some regression risk. A 16.5 percent shooting percentage could fall, and adding veterans such as Trocheck and Lee creates more competition for offensive touches. But those same additions also make Utah harder to defend and give opponents fewer opportunities to load their best matchups against Guenther’s line.
My expected range is 80-to-87 points, with a floor around 74 and a legitimate ceiling above 90 if everything clicks.
The official NHLTradeRumor.com Dylan Guenther point projection for 2026-27 is 42 goals, 42 assists and 84 points. Guenther already proved he can score 40. The fantasy question now is whether his playmaking catches up with his shot. If it does, Utah may have one of the NHL’s next true elite offensive wingers.
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